The recent surge in storm activity in the Houston metro area, from floods to tornadoes across Southeast Texas, has rain-weary folks asking, unsurprisingly: When does hurricane season start? Here’s when, and why it might be less important than you think.

When does hurricane season start?

The first day of the hurricane season in the Atlantic basin — which includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico — is on June 1, which is this Saturday. Hurricanes form when ocean water temperatures are warmest, and for the Atlantic basin, that’s during the summer and fall months.

The start of hurricane season coincides with the start of meteorological summer, or the calendar months of June, July and August. The dates for the traditional, astronomical starts of the seasons, such as the summer solstice or the autumn equinox, can vary from year to year. So forecasters prefer using the fixed calendar months for consistency in weather data and record-keeping.

When does hurricane season end?

The last day of the hurricane season in the Atlantic basin is on Nov. 30. The end of hurricane season coincides with the end of meteorological fall, or the calendar months of September, October and November. Because hurricane season is based on fixed calendar dates, the same way Christmas is always on Dec. 25 or Independence Day is July 4, hurricane season will always start on June 1 and end on Nov. 30.

However, as climate change continues to produce profound effects on our seasons and weather, hurricane season could become longer or start earlier in the future, scientists have asserted.

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The start of the Atlantic hurricane season is an arbitrary point in time because tropical cyclone activity is not limited to the six-month period. Off-season storms have formed mostly in May and December. Two hurricanes actually straddled two calendar years: Hurricane Alice in 1954-55 and Tropical Storm Zeta in 2005-06.

What does it mean for Houston?

Although hurricane season starts as early as June 1, the most active period for hurricane development typically is in August and September.

The Gulf of Mexico is no stranger to tropical development during the month of August, according to Houston Chronicle newsroom meteorologist Justin Ballard. Numerous tropical systems have formed in August looking back at records dating back to 1851.

The Main Development Region, which is the area of the Atlantic basin where nearly 75% of all major hurricanes form, also begins to heat up in terms of tropical formation, he said.

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But when looking at the hurricane season as a whole, from June to November, Colorado State University researchers, who produce an annual outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season, give a 54% chance of at least one hurricane landfall within 50 miles of any one point along the Texas Gulf Coast this year.

When looking at major hurricane landfall odds, they give a 25% chance of at least one major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of any one point along the Texas coast during this year’s hurricane season, researchers said.